Monthly Archives: February 2011

Book review: The Black Swan: the impact of the highly improbable (Part III)


This is the third and final installment of the review. Read the first and second parts. How should we try to predict Black Swans? This is a tautologically difficult thing to do: by definition, we can’t predict unpredictable events. However, … Continue reading

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Book review: The Black Swan: the impact of the highly improbable (Part II)


This is the second of a three-part review. Read the first part here. A big part of the book is about explaining rare events after the fact. Taleb talks about the September 11th attacks as being a sort of prototypical … Continue reading

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Book review: The Black Swan: the impact of the highly improbable (Part I)


How do we interpret and prepare for very rare events? Most of us tend to focus on the outcomes most likely to occur. We might think that those are the only possible outcomes. Or, we might briefly consider some others, … Continue reading

Posted in book reviews, intuition | 4 Comments